STARKVILLE – Other than the pitched, partisan battle over the outcome of initiatives 42 and 42A, few surprises appear to be the offing for the 2015 general election in Mississippi.
Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Bryant is expected to easily dispatch the shadow candidacy of Democratic nominee Robert Gray and the perennial Reform Party candidacy of Shawn O’Hara. Bryant’s path to a second term has been one that mystified Republicans who never saw Gray’s nomination coming from the Democrats.

Likewise, incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves seems to be on cruise control for a second term despite a far more spirited challenge from former state legislators and Madison County elected official Tim “Elvis” Johnson, along with Libertarian candidate Ron Williams and Reform nominee Rosa B. Williams.

The state’s only incumbent Democrat to hold statewide office – Attorney General Jim Hood – appears set to dispatch yet another strong Republican challenger in federal prosecutor Mike Hurst. Polls continue to show Hood with a solid lead, despite GOP dominance in the other seven statewide races.

Down ticket, incumbent GOP Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann is expected to easily win re-election over Democrat Charles E. Graham and Reform nominee Randy Walker. Incumbent GOP State Auditor Stacey Pickering is also expected to outdistance Democratic nominee Joce Pepper and Reform candidate Lajena Walley.

Incumbent GOP State Treasurer Lynn Fitch is a heavy favorite, facing only Reform nominee Viola McFarland. Incumbent Republican State Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney has no opposition in the general election.

Republican incumbent Agriculture Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith is favored to defeat Democrat Addie Lee Green and Reformer Cathy L. Toole.

One area in which Democrats may well make serious gains is in the Public Service Commission. Central District PSC Democratic nominee Cecil Brown and Southern District PSC nominee Tom Blanton are both serious contenders to join incumbent Democrat Northern District PSC Commissioner Brandon Presley and wrest control of that important commission from the GOP.

But Republican incumbents Dick Hall, Mike Tagert, and Tom King are favored to win re-election and keep the state Transportation Commission under Republican control.

While the tea leaves suggest that Republicans will once again dominate a general election, there is genuine concern that the predicted safety of seats held by statewide office Republican incumbents will drive down turnout and raise the possibility of success for Initiative 42.
While not technically a partisan matter, Initiative 42 has been heavily supported by Democrats and heavily opposed by Republicans. Bryant, Reeves, and Mississippi House Speaker Philip Gunn joined each other in a series of statewide press conferences to express their unified opposition to the education equity funding initiative that proposes to fundamentally change how education funding and policies are generated.

Clearly, no single race on the Mississippi general election ballot has generated the heat that the Initiative 42 issue has generated. Confusion over the two initiatives has reigned at times, but voters increasingly seemed to focus on specifics of the two plan in the last two weeks – with more voters asking questions and challenging paid media talking points.

So a fair question would be this: how is it that Republicans appear ready to dominate seven-of-eight statewide races but face a possible loss on an initiative that has for months been as partisan and perhaps more so than any of the races on the ballot?

There are three answers. First, women have gravitated toward support for Initiative 42 regardless of party affiliation. Second, it is a mistake to discount the strength of bloc voting by teacher unions. Third, unlike many Democratic challengers in statewide races, Initiative 42 has had the resources to run a modern, well-organized campaign that outpaced the resources spent in opposition to it.

Still, the initiative and referendum process is difficult and the fact that Initiative 42 is the first initiative to face an alternative measure on the same ballot greatly increases the degree of difficulty in passing the measure. The voluminous process of voting either for or against the initiative is also expected to be a factor in the outcome.

But in terms of a pre-election forecast, all sides admit that there is no more motivating issue on the ballot in the 2015 general election than the prospect of voting either for or against Initiative 42. Only issues like so-called “personhood” and eminent domain have produced political passions as strong and divided as have these measures.

  Sid Salter is a syndicated columnist. Contact him at sidsalter@sidsalter.com