To the editor:

In my life, Mississippi always had two choices: Red and Dark Red. Recent polls indicate this year will be no different. However, Mississippi has been sold short again. Simple math shows Obama supporters should not count Mississippi out. Mississippi’s population has about 2,220,000 potential voters. Assuming a 55% engagement rate, that makes 1,221,000 people actually voting, approximately 70,000 more than in 2004.

Assuming 1,221,000 voters and that since the population of Mississippi is 37% black, 37% of these voters will be black, national trends continue and black voters trend 95% for Obama, blacks will go 429,181 for Obama and 22,588 for McCain. Since other ethnicities currently comprise only about 4% of Mississippi’s population, we’ll group them with the white electorate so you know I’m not padding numbers. This leaves 769,230 voters. If Obama pulls 25% of these voters, he will beat McCain 621,488 to 599,510, 50.8% to 49%.

A recent Research 2000 poll gives McCain a 52-39 advantage. This number is misleading, as it is of a mere 600 “likely voters.” “Likely voters” are generally people that voted in one of the last two elections. This eliminates anyone 18-22, a group that nationally has trended towards Obama by a 30 point spread. Also, this poll shows 13% of blacks and 2% of whites as “undecided.”

The poll shows 14% of whites are voting for Obama. That’s only 10% short, so it’s crunch time. Get on the phone. Walk your neighborhood. Call churches, colleges, high schools. Secure locations. Get people, especially young people, registered before October 3rd. Then get those people to the polls. Witness absentee ballots. Take off election day to provide transportation. Make more phone calls. Vote. The media has declared Mississippi lost, so you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Now, let’s go beat these guys.

Rodney Hopper II

Waxahachie, Texas